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The persistence of false beliefs is often attributed to a motivation to be right, but cognitive science research suggests a more fundamental mechanism: the specific strategy humans use in seeking new information. When individuals attempt to discover a rule or verify a belief, they rarely attempt to falsify their own assumptions. Instead, they employ a “positive test strategy,” searching for instances that would occur if their working hypothesis were true [klayman_confirmation_1987, klayman_varieties_1995, bhatia_confirmatory_2014].
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The research introduces what it calls “observed exposure” — a new metric that compares theoretical AI capability against real-world usage data, pulled directly from Claude interactions in professional settings. The finding that jumps off the page: AI is barely scratching the surface of what it’s technically capable of doing. And when it does close that gap, the workers most at risk are older, highly educated and well paid.